[{"content":"Translated from German with an LLM (Claude). The German original is authoritative.\nIn 2025, almost one in seven valid second votes did not win a seat in the Bundestag, 6.82 million in total.1 Without the five percent threshold, 86 of the 630 seats would have gone to nine parties that have none today, above all to the BSW and the FDP (my own calculation, see Method). The threshold should go, as it has for European elections since 2014. Without it, every vote counts equally, and four safeguards can prevent fragmentation and special privileges for individual parties.\nImage: LLM-generated (ChatGPT)\n6.82 million votes without a seat In the 2025 federal election, 6,816,156 of 49,649,512 valid second votes did not lead to a seat in the Bundestag, which is 13.7 percent.1 Under Section 4(2), second sentence, of the Federal Elections Act, only parties with at least five percent of the valid second votes receive seats. The number of second votes without a seat is thus roughly as large as all valid votes cast in Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein combined (5.02 and 1.88 million).2\nImage: LLM-generated (ChatGPT)\nThe votes without a seat even exceed all valid votes in the 2026 Swedish Riksdag election (6.77 million).3 They are about twice as many as the valid votes in the 2025 Norwegian Storting election (3.22 million)4 or the 2026 Danish Folketing election (3.57 million).5 Even compared with the 10.57 million valid votes in the 2025 Dutch House of Representatives election, they come to almost two thirds.6 The German votes without a seat alone would be enough to elect an entire parliament in Sweden, Norway or Denmark.\nImage: LLM-generated (ChatGPT)\nBehind every valid vote stands a person who has come of age and makes their own decisions. That is why the percentage is not all that counts, but also how many people a party has to convince to clear the threshold.\nVotes needed for the threshold compared Country Threshold Valid votes in the last election Votes needed for the threshold Germany 5 % nationwide 49.65 million (2025) 2.48 million Sweden 4 % nationwide or 12 % in one constituency 6.77 million (2026) 271,000 Norway 4 % for the levelling seats 3.22 million (2025) 129,000 Denmark 2 % for the supplementary seats or one constituency seat 3.57 million (2026) 71,000 Netherlands no formal threshold, one seat out of 150 (0.67 %) 10.57 million (2025) 70,000 Sources: Federal Returning Officer1, Valmyndigheten and SVT3, Sveriges riksdag7, Statistisk sentralbyrå4, Store norske leksikon8, Danmarks Statistik5, Kiesraad6; the last column is my own calculation.\nThe German threshold is therefore more than nine times as high as the Swedish one and about 35 times as high as the Danish one or the number of votes for one seat in the Netherlands.\nThese countries also have votes without a seat, but far fewer.\nVotes without a seat compared Country Votes without a seat Share of valid votes Germany (2025) 6,816,156 13.7 % Netherlands (2025) 150,399 1.4 % Norway (2025) 138,606 4.3 % Sweden (2026) 107,199 1.6 % Denmark (2026) 2,436 0.07 % Sources: Federal Returning Officer1, Kiesraad and Parlement.com9, Statistisk sentralbyrå4, Valmyndigheten and SVT3, Danmarks Statistik5; totals and shares are my own calculation.10\nGermany thus had about 45 times as many votes without a seat as the Netherlands, almost 50 times as many as Norway and more than 60 times as many as Sweden. All four countries together come to just under 400,000 votes without a seat, Germany alone to seventeen times that number. In Denmark, all twelve parties that stood in 2026 entered the Folketing.11\nExempt from the German threshold are parties that win three constituency seats (the basic mandate clause) and parties of national minorities. Thanks to this exemption, the SSW, the party of the Danish minority, won a seat with 76,138 votes. The BSW missed out most narrowly, falling about 9,500 votes short with 2,472,947 votes (4.98 %). Because it won no three constituency seats, it did not receive a single seat, despite having more than thirty times as many votes as the SSW.1\nOn top of this, some voters in 2025 probably voted strategically for a different party because they feared their actual choice would fall below the threshold. How many did so cannot be read from the official results. The will of the voters is therefore reflected even less accurately than the 6.82 million alone suggest.\nThe European election shows that it works without a threshold Since 2014, Germany has elected its members of the European Parliament without a threshold. On 26 February 2014, the Federal Constitutional Court declared the three percent threshold void because it violated the equality of the vote and the equal opportunities of parties, while the European Parliament did not need it in order to function.12 As a result, eight parties with less than five percent entered the European Parliament in 2024, namely Die Linke, Freie Wähler, Volt, Die PARTEI, Tierschutzpartei, ÖDP, Familie and PdF. Together they received 15 of the 96 German seats.13 Six of the eight parties joined existing political groups, and only Die PARTEI and PdF remained non-attached.14 The Parliament therefore remained able to work. The comparison has its limits, because the European Parliament does not elect a government.\nWhether it stays this way is open. In 2018, the EU decided that large member states must introduce a threshold of two to five percent for European elections, and the Bundestag approved this in 2023.15 The rule only enters into force once all member states have ratified it, and in April 2026 Spain was still missing.15 Germany would then also have to reintroduce a threshold of at least two percent. That does not change the experience of three European elections without a threshold.\nWeimar: The threshold was never the only lesson The five percent threshold is a response to the Weimar Republic. Between February 1919 and January 1933, depending on how they are counted, 16 or 20 national governments held office, each lasting only around eight months on average.1617 There was no percentage threshold,18 and up to 14 parties sat in the Reichstag.16 No party was able to form a stable majority, and the Reich President repeatedly appointed chancellors who had no majority in the Reichstag from the outset.16 The Reich President appointed the Chancellor (Article 53 of the Weimar Constitution), and the Reichstag could bring down any government with a vote of no confidence without having to elect a successor (Article 54).19\nTo prevent a repetition, the electoral law for the first Bundestag of 15 June 1949 already provided for a five percent threshold.20 At that time it applied separately in each federal state, so that a party entered the Bundestag if it reached five percent in one state or won a constituency there.20 In this way, eleven parties entered the Bundestag in 1949, counting CDU and CSU separately, plus three independents.21 Only the electoral law adopted on 25 June 1953, with a first and a second vote, applied the threshold to the second votes cast nationwide.2223 Since 1956, a party below five percent has needed three constituency seats instead of one.23 The 2023 reform abolished this basic mandate clause, and in 2024 the Federal Constitutional Court reinstated it.24\nThe threshold in 1953 and 2025 Feature 1953 2025 Eligible voters 33.1 million 60.5 million Turnout 86.0 % 82.5 % Valid second votes 27.55 million 49.65 million 5 % of valid second votes 1.38 million 2.48 million Sources: Federal Returning Officer251; the last row is my own calculation.\nSince 1953, the threshold has risen by around 1.1 million votes in absolute terms.\nMoreover, the threshold was never the only remedy against the instability of Weimar. The Chancellor is no longer appointed by the head of state but elected by the Bundestag (Article 63 of the Basic Law).26 The Bundestag can only remove the Chancellor if it simultaneously elects a successor by a majority (constructive vote of no confidence, Article 67 of the Basic Law).26 If the Chancellor loses a vote of confidence, the Federal President can dissolve the Bundestag on the Chancellor\u0026rsquo;s proposal (Article 68 of the Basic Law).26 Which of these instruments solved the problems of Weimar cannot be said precisely. What is certain is that the threshold does not carry this burden alone.\nKarlsruhe: The threshold stays, but not on its own On 30 July 2024, the Federal Constitutional Court declared the five percent threshold in the form of the 2023 electoral reform unconstitutional, because the reform had abolished the basic mandate clause.24 Without this clause, the court held, the threshold is not fully necessary under present conditions to ensure that the Bundestag can function. It therefore violates the equal opportunities of parties (Article 21(1) of the Basic Law) and the equality of the vote (Article 38(1), first sentence, of the Basic Law).24 The court explicitly named the CSU, which does not run against the CDU and has formed a joint parliamentary group with it since 1949. If the CSU failed to clear the threshold even though the Union as a whole is far above it, that would not be justified.24\nThe court did not abolish the threshold with this ruling. It still considers a five percent threshold permissible in principle, but requires the legislature to adapt it to present conditions.24 As examples, it mentions a constituency clause such as the basic mandate clause, or counting together parties that, like the CDU and CSU, form one parliamentary group and do not run against each other.24 Until new rules are adopted, the threshold continues to apply, but again with the basic mandate clause.24 The ruling allows a threshold, but it does not require one.\nWithout a threshold, 86 seats change hands Without a threshold, the six parties that are large today lose 86 seats between them, and nine parties without a seat today enter the Bundestag. The BSW (32) and the FDP (27) gain the most seats. For this, I assume that every valid second vote has the same value and that seats are allocated solely according to the number of votes. The basis is the final second votes of all 29 parties.1 One seat then corresponds to about 78,800 votes, and I describe the calculation in the Method section.\nSeats in 2025 and without a threshold Party Actual 2025 Model Change CDU 164 142 −22 AfD 152 131 −21 SPD 120 104 −16 Greens 85 73 −12 Die Linke 64 55 −9 CSU 44 38 −6 BSW 0 32 +32 FDP 0 27 +27 Freie Wähler 0 10 +10 Tierschutzpartei 0 6 +6 Volt 0 5 +5 Die PARTEI 0 3 +3 dieBasis 0 1 +1 Bündnis Deutschland 0 1 +1 SSW 1 1 0 ÖDP 0 1 +1 13 other parties 0 0 0 Total 630 630 Sources: actual distribution of seats according to the Federal Returning Officer27, model is my own calculation.\nEven without a threshold, 133,460 votes (0.27 %) remain without a seat in the model, because their parties receive neither a full seat nor a remainder seat. That is about one fiftieth as many as the 6.82 million under the current threshold, and every vote is treated equally.\nFor the same reason, the majority clause should also go. Today, a party that has more than half of the second votes but not more than half of the seats receives additional seats until it has a majority of the seats.28 Its votes then count for more than the votes for other parties. The price is that a party with just over half of the votes may, because of rounding, exceptionally receive exactly half of the seats and thus no majority of its own.\nWithout a threshold, the Bundestag becomes more diverse With the votes of 2025 alone, sixteen instead of seven parties would sit in the Bundestag without a threshold, and thirteen with the minimum size requirement from safeguard 1 (see below). The abolition of the threshold will only have its full effect a few legislative terms later, however. I expect that currents which today compete for influence within a large party will gradually found parties of their own. The parties will then put their energy into solutions to the country\u0026rsquo;s problems instead of internal power struggles.\nImage: LLM-generated (Claude). Click to enlarge.\nFour safeguards for an electoral law without a threshold An electoral law without a threshold needs rules that prevent abuse and fragmentation and apply equally to all parties. I propose four. I particularly recommend the minimum size and the upper limit. The order on the ballot paper and the list for all of Germany would make the electoral system even fairer.\n1. Minimum size of parties. Only those with a base should be able to stand, namely at least 5,000 members. That is small enough for new movements and large enough to filter out one-person parties and mere lists of candidates. Today, small parties instead need supporting signatures from one thousandth of the eligible voters of a state for a state list, up to a maximum of 2,000. Exempt from this are parties that have been continuously represented by at least five members in the Bundestag or a state parliament, and parties of national minorities such as the SSW.2930 The minimum number replaces this one-off collection with a lasting base and applies to all parties, including the established ones. Only adult members who have been members for at least one year and pay their membership fee themselves are counted. Mass enrolments shortly before an election are therefore pointless. The number is confirmed by an auditor, as is already the case today for the parties\u0026rsquo; financial statements, and the authorities receive only the number, not any names.31 Of the parties that receive up to ten seats in the model, the ÖDP (6,987), Volt (8,139), Freie Wähler (8,812), dieBasis (17,491) and Die PARTEI (54,333) report more members.32 The Tierschutzpartei (2,506), the SSW (3,109) and Bündnis Deutschland (1,000) report fewer and could not stand with these numbers.3233 The BSW was only founded in January 2024 and reported just 1,100 members at the end of 2024, but 11,200 in December 2025.343235 It would therefore probably meet the minimum size at the next election (for the 2025 election, see Method). If parties know the requirement early enough, however, they can make a targeted effort to win members, and there is no incentive to do so today. The price is a new threshold, but one that rewards building up a party rather than a single election result.\n2. Order on the ballot paper. The parties should be listed on the ballot paper according to their nationwide number of members. Today, the order is determined by the second-vote result of the last federal election in the respective state, with new parties following in alphabetical order.36 Those who are already strong are therefore at the top. That is an advantage, because studies from other countries show that those placed higher receive measurably more votes.37 How strong the effect is in federal elections is, however, not precisely known. A position based on membership, by contrast, rewards grassroots work, including for the large parties. It is based on the same audited membership figures as the minimum size.\nImage: LLM-generated (Claude). Click to enlarge.\nIf all 29 parties from 2025 had submitted a federal list, 13 of them would appear on the ballot paper according to their own membership figures, while the other 16 report fewer than 5,000 members.38 Later, only members who meet the conditions from point 1 would be counted, so the order may still shift.\n3. Abolish special rules. Equal rules for all do not allow exceptions for individual parties.\na) Stand throughout Germany. The CSU has the greatest special position. It only stands in Bavaria and nevertheless reached 6.0 percent of the second votes nationwide in 2025.1 It can tailor its election campaign entirely to Bavaria, because it only has to convince voters there. At federal level, it nevertheless governs as a party in its own right and signed the 2025 coalition agreement.39 No other large party has this advantage. Under the Basic Law, however, members of the Bundestag are “representatives of the whole people”. The interests of the states are represented by the Bundesrat.40 Every party that stands in the federal election should therefore appear on the ballot paper throughout Germany. To do so, it submits one list for all of Germany instead of lists for individual states, as is already possible in European elections.41 The CSU would then also stand outside Bavaria, the CDU also in Bavaria, and regional parties such as the SSW or the Bayernpartei throughout Germany. A joint parliamentary group of CDU and CSU would remain possible, but would then require the consent of the Bundestag. Without consent, only parties that do not compete with each other in any state can form a joint parliamentary group.42 The price is an intervention in the freedom of parties to decide for themselves where they stand.\nb) Abolish the basic mandate clause. Together with the threshold, the basic mandate clause also goes, because without a threshold there is nothing left for it to be an exception to.\nc) No special rule for the SSW. Today, the threshold does not apply to parties of national minorities, and in practice this only concerns the SSW (Section 4(2), third sentence, of the Federal Elections Act).30 The exemption has applied since the 1953 electoral law43 and is part of the German-Danish protection of minorities, which is based on the Bonn-Copenhagen Declarations of 29 March 1955.44 Without a threshold, the SSW no longer needs a special rule. Like any other party, it receives a seat as soon as it has enough votes for one. In the model, this is the case. With 3,109 members at the end of 2024, however, it would have to grow to 5,000 to meet the minimum size from point 1.32\n4. Upper limit for votes without a seat. No more than 1 million valid votes should ever remain without a seat in parliament. If this limit is exceeded, the number of seats increases by one, and keeps doing so until the number of votes without a seat falls below the limit again. With more seats, the number of votes per seat falls, and smaller parties get their turn. It is very unlikely that the limit will apply, because in the model for 2025 only 133,460 votes remain without a seat, a good eighth of that limit. Today there is no such limit, even though almost seven times as many votes remained without a seat in 2025. The price is that in this theoretical case the Bundestag could grow beyond 630 seats.\nWhat the Bundestag should decide now Abolishing the threshold and introducing the four safeguards only requires a simple majority in the Bundestag, and the Basic Law does not need to be amended.26 The Bundestag has to decide anew in any case, because since the 2024 ruling the basic mandate clause only applies as a transitional rule.24 To this end, the CDU, CSU and SPD agreed in their coalition agreement on a commission, which has reviewed the 2023 electoral reform.45 By July 2026, however, the coalition had not agreed on new rules.46 I will first present a fully drafted bill with an explanatory memorandum to the parliamentary groups and then publish it here.\nMost important is that every vote counts equally:\nFederal Elections Act, Section 4(2): The threshold is abolished. The basic mandate clause and the exemption for the SSW go with it, because both are only exceptions to the threshold. Federal Elections Act, Section 5: Seats are allocated using the largest remainder method (Hare/Niemeyer), no longer by Sainte-Laguë/Schepers.47 Federal Elections Act, Section 4(4): The majority clause is abolished, so that no party receives more seats than its votes entitle it to. Against fragmentation, I also recommend two safeguards:\nFederal Elections Act, Sections 18, 20 and 27, Political Parties Act, Sections 24 and 31d: Every party that stands needs at least 5,000 members instead of supporting signatures, confirmed by an auditor. False statements about this are a criminal offence. Federal Elections Act, new Section 4(5): If more than 1 million valid votes remain without a seat, the number of seats increases. Two further changes are desirable so that the same rules apply to all parties:\nFederal Elections Act, Section 18 and new Section 27a: Every party that stands submits one list for all of Germany instead of state lists. The CSU then also stands outside Bavaria, the CDU also in Bavaria. Federal Elections Act, Section 30(3): The order on the ballot paper is based on the number of members, no longer on the result of the last election in the state. In the 2025 election, only 133,460 votes would then have remained without a seat instead of 6.82 million, about one fiftieth as many.\nMethod The model calculation is my own, as are all percentages and ratios in the text that do not come directly from a source. The basis is the final second votes of all 29 parties in the 2025 federal election.1 Independent candidates are not included, because they do not receive second votes. The threshold, the basic mandate clause and the second-vote coverage rule are dropped, and the number of seats remains 630. In the model, everyone votes as they did in 2025. Those who voted strategically at the time out of concern about the threshold are not taken into account.\nSeats are allocated using the largest remainder method (Hare/Niemeyer):\n49,649,512 valid second votes ÷ 630 seats = 78,808.75 votes per seat. Each party receives as many seats as there are full multiples of 78,808.75 votes in its vote count. This results in 622 seats. The 8 remaining seats go to the parties with the largest remainders, including those without a full seat. The eight remainder seats Party Remaining votes Bündnis Deutschland 76,372 SSW 76,138 Freie Wähler 60,000 ÖDP 49,764 CSU 48,104 Volt 40,027 SPD 31,823 BSW 29,876 Current law allocates seats according to Sainte-Laguë/Schepers (Section 5 of the Federal Elections Act), and I propose the largest remainder method instead (see the changes above). While the largest remainder method only gives the remaining seats to the parties with the largest remainders, Sainte-Laguë rounds every party\u0026rsquo;s seat entitlement to the nearest whole number and adjusts the number of votes per seat until exactly 630 seats are allocated.47 Under Sainte-Laguë, the CDU would receive one seat more (143) and the BSW one fewer (31), and nothing would change for any other party.\nThe model shows how I would allocate the seats under the conditions of 2025, that is, with the parties admitted and the votes cast. It deliberately leaves out the minimum size from safeguard 1, because the parties could not yet prepare for it at the time. The BSW, for example, could not have met it at all, because it was only founded in January 2024 and on the reference date in November 2024 nobody had yet been a member for a year. At the next election, based on the latest membership figures, the Tierschutzpartei, the SSW and Bündnis Deutschland would fail to meet the minimum size, and their 8 seats in total would go to other parties.\nDie Bundeswahlleiterin (Federal Returning Officer): Wahl zum 21. Deutschen Bundestag am 23. Februar 2025, Heft 3: Endgültige Ergebnisse nach Wahlkreisen, Informationen der Bundeswahlleiterin, Wiesbaden, March 2025, Table 1.1 “Bundesergebnis”, p. 8 (which also refers to Section 4(2), second sentence, BWahlG). PDF of Heft 3 from the Federal Returning Officer, retrieved 25 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nDie Bundeswahlleiterin: Heft 3 (as above), Table 1.2.1 “Schleswig-Holstein”, p. 9, and Table 1.2.4 “Niedersachsen”, p. 12.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nValmyndigheten: Valresultat fastställt i 2026 års riksdagsval, press release of 19 September 2026 (6,834,413 votes cast), press release of Valmyndigheten, retrieved 18 October 2026; Valmyndigheten: Results of the 2026 elections to the Riksdag and regional and municipal councils, 6 October 2026 (parties outside the Riksdag: 1.58 percent), 2026 election results at Valmyndigheten, retrieved 25 October 2026; valid votes (6,767,429) and votes for “övriga partier” (107,199) according to SVT: Valresultat 2026, as of 19 September 2026, final, election result at SVT, retrieved 18 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nStatistisk sentralbyrå: Stortingsvalet, Table 4 “Stortingsval. Godkjende røyster” (Godkjende røyster i alt: 3,219,888), updated 27 November 2025, Table 4 corrected 6 January 2026. “Stortingsvalet” page at Statistisk sentralbyrå, retrieved 25 October 2026. Table 1 “Gjevne røyster” on the same page gives 3,246,318 valid ballots; the difference of 26,430 consists of blank ballots (blanke røyster), which count for no party.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nDanmarks Statistik and Indenrigs- og Sundhedsministeriet: Opgørelse af folketingsvalget den 24. marts 2026, 10 April 2026, Afsnit 1.6 “Betingelser for deltagelse i fordelingen af tillægsmandaterne”, p. 3 (2 percent condition under Section 77(1)(3) of the Folketing Elections Act: “af de afgivne gyldige stemmer”, i.e. of the valid votes), Tabel 4, p. 9 (gyldige stemmer: 3,567,625), and Tabel 5, p. 11 (candidates outside the parties: 2,436 votes). PDF from Danmarks Statistik, retrieved 25 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nKiesraad: Verkiezingsuitslag Tweede Kamer 29 oktober 2025 (geldige stemmen: 10,571,990). Tweede Kamer 2025 election result at the Kiesraad, retrieved 15 October 2026. One seat corresponded to 70,480 votes (kiesdeler) according to Parlement.com: Tweede Kamerverkiezingen 2025, section “Kerngegevens”, Election result at Parlement.com, retrieved 25 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nSveriges riksdag: Val till riksdagen. “Val till riksdagen” page at riksdagen.se, retrieved 15 October 2026. Legal basis: Regeringsformen (SFS 1974:152), Chapter 3, Section 7 (four percent “av rösterna i hela riket”, twelve percent in one constituency), Regeringsformen at riksdagen.se; the calculation uses valid votes, because blank ballots are invalid (Vallag, SFS 2005:837, Chapter 13, Section 7) and the levelling seats are based on all valid votes in the country (Chapter 14, Section 4 c), Vallag at riksdagen.se; both retrieved 18 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nStore norske leksikon: Stortingsvalget 2025, “Stortingsvalget 2025” article at snl.no, retrieved 15 October 2026, and Utjevningsmandat, “Utjevningsmandat” article at snl.no, retrieved 25 October 2026. Legal basis: Constitution of Norway (Kongeriket Norges Grunnlov), Section 59(3) (compensatory seats only for parties with at least four percent “av dei godkjende røystene i heile riket”, i.e. of the valid votes), wording in Nynorsk according to Valgdirektoratet: Samsvarserklæring EVA Resultat, 2023, EVA Resultat declaration of conformity by Valgdirektoratet, retrieved 25 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nParlement.com (Montesquieu Instituut): Tweede Kamerverkiezingen 2025, table “Uitslag” with the votes and seats of all 27 lists. Election result at Parlement.com, retrieved 25 October 2026. Twelve lists remained without a seat, the largest being BIJ1 with 40,360 votes.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nNorway: valid votes (3,219,888) minus the votes of the nine parties with seats. Venstre was below the threshold with 3.7 percent but won three constituency seats and is therefore not counted among the votes without a seat. Sweden: votes for “övriga partier” (107,199), i.e. all parties outside the Riksdag. Netherlands: sum of the twelve lists without a seat. Denmark: votes for independent candidates outside the parties (“uden for partierne”), because all parties received seats.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nDanmarks Statistik and Indenrigs- og Sundhedsministeriet: Opgørelse af folketingsvalget den 24. marts 2026 (see above), Tabel 3 “Beregning af partiernes tillægsmandater ved folketingsvalget den 24. marts 2026”, p. 4. All twelve parties won seats, Borgernes Parti only four supplementary seats (tillægsmandater).\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nFederal Constitutional Court, judgment of the Second Senate of 26 February 2014 – 2 BvE 2/13 et al. –, BVerfGE 135, 259, ECLI:DE:BVerfG:2014:es20140226.2bve000213; see Der Bundeswahlleiter: Drei-Prozent-Sperrklausel im Europawahlrecht verfassungswidrig, announcement of 27 February 2014, announcement of the Federal Returning Officer of 27 February 2014, retrieved 25 October 2026, and Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung: Urteil zur Drei-Prozent-Sperrklausel, Hintergrund aktuell of 26 February 2014, background on the judgment at bpb.de, retrieved 21 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nDie Bundeswahlleiterin: Europawahl 2024: Endgültiges Ergebnis, press release no. 42/24 of 3 July 2024. Press release 42/24 of the Federal Returning Officer, retrieved 18 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nEuropean Parliament: 2024 European election results, Germany: seats by national party and political group, as of 16 July 2024. Seats by party and political group at the European Parliament, retrieved 17 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nArticle 3(2) of the Electoral Act as amended by Council Decision (EU, Euratom) 2018/994 of 13 July 2018, OJ L 178 of 16 July 2018, p. 1 (at least 2 and no more than 5 percent of the valid votes in constituencies with more than 35 seats); on the consent of the Bundestag on 15 June 2023 and of the Bundesrat on 7 July 2023 and on the state of ratification: Federal Constitutional Court, order of the Second Senate of 6 February 2024 – 2 BvE 6/23, 2 BvR 994/23 –, BVerfGE 168, 372, paras. 1, 19–20 and 26, order on the 2018 Electoral Act (Deutschsprachiges Fallrecht, University of Bern), retrieved 25 October 2026; Agence Europe: European Parliament urges Spain to ratify 2018 reform of EU Electoral Law, 20 January 2026, Agence Europe report on ratification in Spain, retrieved 15 October 2026; European Parliament: Das Europäische Parlament: Wahlverfahren, fact sheet, as of April 2026, European Parliament fact sheet on the electoral procedure, retrieved 25 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nHorst Möller: Weimarer Verhältnisse? Zum Anteil der Parteien am Ende der Weimarer Republik, in: Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte, 9 November 2018. Article by Möller at bpb.de, retrieved 18 October 2026. Möller counts “in 14 Jahren 20 Reichsregierungen” (20 national governments in 14 years) and “im Höchstfall 14” (at most 14) parties in the Reichstag.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nDeutsches Historisches Museum: LeMO – Weimarer Republik, Innenpolitik (“innerhalb von 14 Jahren 16 Reichsregierungen mit einer durchschnittlichen Dauer von acht Monaten”, i.e. 16 national governments within 14 years with an average duration of eight months). LeMO domestic policy at dhm.de, retrieved 18 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nJohannes Leicht: LeMO – Weimarer Republik, Innenpolitik: Parteien, Wahlen und Wahlrecht, Deutsches Historisches Museum, as of 3 April 2005 (“Eine Fünf-Prozent-Klausel gab es nicht.”, i.e. there was no five percent clause). LeMO electoral law at dhm.de, retrieved 18 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nConstitution of the German Reich of 11 August 1919, RGBl. 1919 p. 1383, Art. 53 and 54. Text: German History in Documents and Images (GHI Washington), retrieved 15 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nWahlgesetz zum ersten Bundestag und zur ersten Bundesversammlung der Bundesrepublik Deutschland of 15 June 1949, BGBl. 1949 p. 21, Section 10(4) and (5). Text: PDF of the 1949 electoral law at CVCE.eu, retrieved 15 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nBundeszentrale für politische Bildung: Bundestagswahl 1949: Die parlamentarische Geburtsstunde der Bundesrepublik, 6 August 2019. 1949 federal election at bpb.de, retrieved 18 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nDeutscher Bundestag: 25. Juni 1953: Bundestag führt Zweitstimme ein. Bundestag text archive on 1953, retrieved 18 October 2026. Reference of the law: BGBl. 1953 I p. 470 (Deutscher Bundestag, Datenhandbuch, Chapter 1.1).\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nKarl-Rudolf Korte: Historischer Hintergrund und Parteiensystem, Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung, 31 January 2025. Article by Korte at bpb.de, retrieved 18 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nFederal Constitutional Court, judgment of the Second Senate of 30 July 2024 – 2 BvF 1/23 et al. –, BVerfGE 169, 236, ECLI:DE:BVerfG:2024:fs20240730.2bvf000123, headnotes 3 and 4, operative provisions nos. 3 and 4, paras. 249 to 272 (on the CSU) and para. 288 (continued application with the basic mandate clause), judgment at the Federal Constitutional Court, retrieved 18 October 2026; Federal Constitutional Court: Das Bundeswahlgesetz 2023 ist überwiegend verfassungsgemäß – allein die 5 %-Sperrklausel ist derzeit verfassungswidrig, gilt aber mit bestimmten Maßgaben fort, press release no. 64/2024 of 30 July 2024 (on the CSU and on the options for new legislation), press release no. 64/2024, retrieved 18 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nDie Bundeswahlleiterin: Ergebnisse früherer Bundestagswahlen, Wiesbaden, June 2025, Table 2 (pp. 6, 8) and Table 4 (p. 16). PDF of results of earlier federal elections, retrieved 18 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nBasic Law for the Federal Republic of Germany, Art. 63, 67 and 68 according to Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung: VI. Die Bundesregierung, Basic Law, Section VI, at bpb.de; Art. 38(3) (“Das Nähere bestimmt ein Bundesgesetz.”, i.e. details are regulated by a federal law) according to Die Bundeswahlleiterin: Grundgesetz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland (GG), Auszug, as of 22 March 2025, PDF of the Basic Law excerpt from the Federal Returning Officer; both retrieved 15 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nDie Bundeswahlleiterin: Heft 3 (as above), Chapter 3 “Endgültige Bundestagsmandate nach Parteien und Länder”, p. 331.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nBundeswahlgesetz (Federal Elections Act), Section 4(4) (majority clause), unofficial German text: Section 4 BWahlG at lxgesetze.de, retrieved 16 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nDie Bundeswahlleiterin: Glossar: Landesliste (on Section 27 BWahlG and Section 39 BWO). Glossary entry on state lists, retrieved 18 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nResearch Services of the German Bundestag: Zu Unterschriftenquoren und zur Sperrklausel für die Teilnahme an Bundestags- und Europawahlen, Sachstand WD 3 - 3000 - 043/24 of 17 April 2024, pp. 4–5 (on Section 4(2), third sentence, and Section 27(1), fourth sentence, BWahlG). PDF of the Research Services, retrieved 15 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nPolitical Parties Act, Section 23(2), first sentence (audit of the financial statement by an auditor or an audit firm) and Section 24(10) (number of members as of 31 December), unofficial reproduction: lxgesetze.de Section 23, lxgesetze.de Section 24, retrieved 17 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nInformation from the President of the German Bundestag, Bekanntmachung von Rechenschaftsberichten politischer Parteien für das Kalenderjahr 2024: Bundestag printed paper 21/4150 (parties represented in the Bundestag at the end of 2024) and printed paper 21/4185 (other parties entitled to state funding), each with the number of members as of 31 December 2024 as reported by the parties (Section 24(10) PartG); summarised in heute im bundestag: Rechenschaftsberichte von sieben Parteien veröffentlicht, hib 116/2026 of 19 February 2026, hib 116/2026 announcement, and Rechenschaftsberichte 2024 von zwölf Parteien veröffentlicht, hib 119/2026 of 23 February 2026, hib 119/2026 announcement, retrieved 25 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nBundeszentrale für politische Bildung: Wer steht zur Wahl? Bundestagswahl 2025, party profiles of 6 February 2025 with membership figures of the federal party organisations as reported by the parties: Tierschutzpartei, Bündnis Deutschland, retrieved 15 October 2026. For neither party had a 2024 financial statement been published as a Bundestag printed paper by 23 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nBundeszentrale für politische Bildung: Wer steht zur Wahl? Bundestagswahl 2025, party profile of 6 February 2025: “Die Partei „Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit“ (BSW) wurde im Januar 2024 gegründet.” (the party was founded in January 2024). BSW profile at bpb.de, retrieved 23 October 2026. The reference date for the minimum size would have been the 97th day before the election on 23 February 2025, i.e. 18 November 2024 (my own calculation).\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nDorian Baganz: 4 Fakten zeigen, wie es mit dem BSW nach Magdeburg weitergeht, der Freitag, 9 December 2025: “Aktuell hat das BSW 11.200 Mitglieder, nach eigenen Angaben gibt es noch über 6.000 unbearbeitete Mitgliedsanträge.” (the BSW currently has 11,200 members and, according to the party, more than 6,000 unprocessed membership applications). Article by Baganz at freitag.de, retrieved 23 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nDie Bundeswahlleiterin: Glossar: Reihenfolge der Wahlvorschläge auf dem Stimmzettel (on Section 30(3) BWahlG). Glossary entry on the order on the ballot paper, retrieved 18 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nBenny Geys: Kandidaten in der Pole Position, WZB-Mitteilungen issue 113, September 2006, pp. 33–35, with studies on Australia, Brussels and New York. PDF of the WZB-Mitteilungen, retrieved 15 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nMembership figures as of 31 December 2024 from the parties\u0026rsquo; financial statements for 2024 (Bundestag printed papers 21/4150, 21/4185 and 21/5235), hib 116/2026 on the Bundestag parties, hib 119/2026 on twelve further parties with state funding, hib on 16 other parties, retrieved 23 October 2026. For the BSW, the image shows the figure the party gave in December 2025 (11,200, der Freitag), because it was only founded in 2024 and reported just 1,100 members at the end of 2024. Order in the image: CDU 364,202, SPD 357,116, GRÜNE 155,296, CSU 125,154, FDP 67,412, Die Linke 58,532, Die PARTEI 54,333, AfD 51,319, dieBasis 17,491, BSW 11,200, FREIE WÄHLER 8,812, Volt 8,139, ÖDP 6,987. Below 5,000 members according to their financial statements: SSW 3,109, Team Todenhöfer 2,531, PdH 2,295, MERA25 1,378, Bündnis C 1,001, MENSCHLICHE WELT 669, PdF 434, SGP 292. For the remaining eight parties, no 2024 financial statement had been published as a printed paper by 23 October 2026; according to the party profiles of the Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung of 6 February 2025 (overview of party profiles at bpb.de, retrieved 18 October 2026), they too report fewer than 5,000 members: PIRATEN 4,554, BP 4,000, MLPD 2,800, Tierschutzpartei 2,506, WerteUnion 1,300, BÜNDNIS DEUTSCHLAND 1,000, BüSo 400, Verjüngungsforschung 323. The image and the order are my own representation.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nZDFheute: Schwarz-Rot: Koalitionsvertrag ist unterschrieben, 5 May 2025. ZDFheute article on the coalition agreement, retrieved 25 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nBasic Law for the Federal Republic of Germany, Art. 38(1), second sentence (“Sie sind Vertreter des ganzen Volkes, an Aufträge und Weisungen nicht gebunden und nur ihrem Gewissen unterworfen.”, i.e. they are representatives of the whole people, not bound by orders or instructions and responsible only to their conscience) according to Die Bundeswahlleiterin: Grundgesetz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland (GG), Auszug, as of 22 March 2025, PDF of the Basic Law excerpt from the Federal Returning Officer; Art. 50 (“Durch den Bundesrat wirken die Länder bei der Gesetzgebung und Verwaltung des Bundes und in Angelegenheiten der Europäischen Union mit.”, i.e. the states participate through the Bundesrat in federal legislation and administration and in matters of the European Union) according to Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung: IV. Der Bundesrat, 11 December 2023, Basic Law, Section IV, at bpb.de; both retrieved 16 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nEuropean Elections Act, Section 11(1) (joint lists for all states), unofficial reproduction: Section 11 EuWG at lexmea.de, retrieved 17 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nRules of Procedure of the German Bundestag, Rule 10(1), first and second sentence, unofficial reproduction: Rule 10 GO-BT at lxgesetze.de, retrieved 17 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nFederal Constitutional Court, judgment of the Second Senate of 23 January 1957, 2 BvE 2/56, BVerfGE 6, 84 (on Section 9(5) of the 1953 electoral law and Section 6(4), second sentence, of the 1956 Federal Elections Act). Text: Deutschsprachiges Fallrecht, University of Bern, retrieved 15 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nBundeszentrale für politische Bildung: Die Bonn-Kopenhagener Erklärungen: Modell für den Umgang mit Minderheiten?, 27 March 2020. Bonn-Copenhagen Declarations at bpb.de, retrieved 15 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nReply of the Federal Government to the minor interpellation of the AfD parliamentary group: Einsetzung einer Wahlrechtskommission zur Änderung des Bundestagswahlrechts, Bundestag printed paper 21/2501 of 31 October 2025, quoting the 2025 coalition agreement of CDU, CSU and SPD (chapter “Vertrauensvolle Zusammenarbeit, erfolgreiches Regieren”) in the questioners\u0026rsquo; preliminary remarks, printed paper 21/2501, retrieved 25 October 2026; heute im bundestag: Änderung des Bundestagswahlrechts, 7 November 2025, heute im bundestag announcement of 7 November 2025, retrieved 17 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nTagesspiegel: Wahlrecht für den Bundestag: Wahlrechtsreform stockt - CSU pocht auf Koalitionsvertrag, 7 June 2026, Tagesspiegel report on the electoral reform, retrieved 18 October 2026; dpa: Koalition verschiebt Beschluss zur Wahlrechtsreform, 2 July 2026, according to dpa report at news.de, retrieved 25 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nDie Bundeswahlleiterin: Hare/Niemeyer and Sainte-Laguë/Schepers, glossary entries with an explanation and a worked example for each method; Hare/Niemeyer was used in the federal elections from 1987 to 2005. Glossary entry Hare/Niemeyer, glossary entry Sainte-Laguë/Schepers, retrieved 21 October 2026.\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\n","permalink":"https://zukunft-gestalten.eu/en/posts/fuenf-prozent-huerde/","summary":"In 2025, almost one in seven valid second votes did not win a seat in the Bundestag, 6.82 million in total. Without the five percent threshold, 86 of the 630 seats would have gone to nine parties that have none today, above all to the BSW and the FDP (my own calculation, see Method). The threshold should go, as it has for European elections since 2014. Without it, every vote counts equally, and four safeguards can prevent fragmentation and special privileges for individual parties.","title":"6.8 million votes without a seat: Why Germany should abolish its five percent threshold"},{"content":"Translated from German with an LLM (Claude). The German original is authoritative.\nThe pen name “Janeway” is inspired by Captain Kathryn Janeway from Star Trek. I write here about proposals to make our political system more democratic and fairer. Every proposal is backed by figures and sources, and I disclose my own calculations.\nI think democracy is a good solution. However, it depends on how it is designed. In my voluntary work I helped draft the election rules for our committees and refined them over several terms. In doing so, I learned how important the rules are.\nI see the same thing on a larger scale in federal elections. Even before election day, the polls make it possible to estimate which parties will make it into the Bundestag. Anyone who wants their vote to make a difference then chooses only among those. That is how I, too, voted tactically in the 2025 election and put my cross next to the party that was only my second choice, so that my vote would not end up without a seat. For the same reason, small parties consider whether to stand at all.\nAt its core, my question is whether every vote is worth the same. Currently, every vote is counted equally, but not every vote has the same chance of making a difference.\nI don\u0026rsquo;t blame anyone for this, because everyone acts according to the rules they find, whether voters, parties, companies or private individuals who donate large sums. So, in the spirit of “don\u0026rsquo;t hate the player, hate the game”, I write here about the rules themselves.\nIf you are new here, the best place to start is the article 6.8 million votes without a seat: Why Germany should abolish its five percent threshold. All demands from all articles are collected on the demands page. So far, only the article on the five percent threshold has been translated into English. The other articles are available in the German version.\nI am a member of a small party, but I deliberately write here as a private individual. My concern is democracy, not the interests of a party.\nAn LLM (Claude) helps me with copy-editing, fact-checking and graphics, but the content, opinions and proposals are my own. Images generated by an LLM are labelled as such below the image.\nHave you found a mistake, a better source or an objection? Then feel free to write to me at zukunft.gestalten@posteo.eu, and I will incorporate corrections.\n","permalink":"https://zukunft-gestalten.eu/en/about/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eTranslated from German with an LLM (Claude). The \u003ca href=\"/about/\" hreflang=\"de\"\u003eGerman original\u003c/a\u003e is authoritative.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe pen name “Janeway” is inspired by Captain Kathryn Janeway from Star Trek.\nI write here about proposals to make our political system more democratic and fairer.\nEvery proposal is backed by figures and sources, and I disclose my own calculations.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI think democracy is a good solution.\nHowever, it depends on how it is designed.\nIn my voluntary work I helped draft the election rules for our committees and refined them over several terms.\nIn doing so, I learned how important the rules are.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"About"},{"content":"Translated from German with an LLM (Claude). The German original is authoritative.\nHere are all the demands from my articles at a glance. The reasoning and the figures can be found in the linked article.\nElectoral law The Bundestag should abolish the five percent threshold so that every vote counts equally (reasoning):\nThe five percent threshold is abolished, and with it the basic mandate clause and the special rule for the SSW. Seats are allocated using the largest remainder method (Hare/Niemeyer). The majority clause is abolished. Two safeguards against fragmentation are recommended:\nEvery party that stands for election needs at least 5,000 members, confirmed by an auditor. No more than 1 million valid votes ever remain without a seat in parliament, otherwise parliament grows by individual seats. The same rules for all parties are also desirable:\nEvery party that stands submits one list for all of Germany instead of state lists, including the CSU, the CDU and regional parties. The order on the ballot paper is based on the number of members nationwide. ","permalink":"https://zukunft-gestalten.eu/en/forderungen/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eTranslated from German with an LLM (Claude). The \u003ca href=\"/forderungen/\" hreflang=\"de\"\u003eGerman original\u003c/a\u003e is authoritative.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHere are all the demands from my articles at a glance.\nThe reasoning and the figures can be found in the linked article.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"electoral-law\"\u003eElectoral law\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe Bundestag should abolish the five percent threshold so that every vote counts equally\n(\u003ca href=\"/en/posts/fuenf-prozent-huerde/\"\u003ereasoning\u003c/a\u003e):\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eThe five percent threshold is abolished, and with it the basic mandate clause and the special rule for the SSW.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eSeats are allocated using the largest remainder method (Hare/Niemeyer).\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eThe majority clause is abolished.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo safeguards against fragmentation are recommended:\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Demands"}]